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  • Writer's pictureLars Christensen

The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World - 2 minutes read

In business, we like to think that a solid strategy will lead to success. If a strategy is the 60,000-foot altitude of our journey, The Art of the Long View will elevate you to the 264,000-foot level of outer space, giving you the tools to create scenarios of the future so that you can form a safer strategic flight.

Peter Schwartz is one of the world's leading futurists. In The Art of the Long View, he shares stories from his time at Royal/Dutch Shell, and how he and his team were able to provide the leadership team with scenarios of the future, resulting in strategic success. The Art of the Long View on Amazon

My notes and thoughts:

  1. When creating scenarios, it is a good idea to start from the inside out. Figuring out what the decision or issue to solve.

  2. List the different factors decision-makers want to know about to make the decision; facts about customers, competitors, and suppliers.

  3. Figure out the driving forces that influence the groups from step two — research markets, new technology, economic markets, etc.

  4. Rank importance and uncertainty.

  5. Now it is time to add some logic to the future. If you determine that your customer's two biggest priorities are the price and environmental impact, you might want to cancel the development of faster processors and a compact product.

  6. Fleshing out the scenarios. How will the world get from here to there?

  7. Implications, Think about items that could happen that would be totally out of your control and how to prepare to be more robust.

  8. Highlight leading indicators. It is worth spending some time to map out some timeline indicators that you can use to monitor in an ongoing way.

Conclusion: If you have strategic thinking anywhere in your LinkedIn profile, you should read this book, and you will elevate to the next level!!

Have an awesome day! Best, Lars

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